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[monks data]
Oct 17, 2020 at 2.30pm UK at Mage-Solar-Stadion
Freiburg
1 - 1
Werder Bremen
Lienhart (16')
Hofler (27'), Santamaria (89'), Schmid (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Fullkrug (25' pen.)
Augustinsson (44'), Mbom (51'), Sargent (83')

Preview: Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Werder Bremen, including team news and predicted lineups.

Freiburg will be looking to recover from their lowly defeat to Borussia Dortmund when they welcome Werder Bremen to the Schwarzwald-Stadion for Saturday's Bundesliga clash.

In contrast, Bremen are searching for their third victory in succession following wins over Schalke and Arminia Bielefeld before the international break.


Match preview

Freiburg manager Christian Streich pictured in June 2020© Reuters

Freiburg were taught a footballing lesson by Dortmund in gameweek three as the hosts cruised to a 4-0 victory at the Westfalenstadion, with Erling Braut Haaland netting twice and Emre Can and Felix Passlack completing the rout.

Christian Streich's men have also beaten Stuttgart and played out a 1-1 stalemate with Wolfsburg in these early stages, so the Freiburg manager will not be too displeased with his side's start to the season.

However, Freiburg took on Stuttgart for the second time in three weeks in a friendly during the international break, and Streich's side fell to a 3-0 defeat in that encounter last week.

There is no need for the Freiburg faithful to be feeling disheartened following a friendly loss, though, as the Breisgau-Brasilianer are now welcoming Werder Bremen to a ground where they have won three out of their last four top-flight fixtures.

Werder Bremen manager Florian Kohfeldt pictured in July 2020© Reuters

Meanwhile, Bremen's season appeared to be heading in the wrong direction following an early drubbing at the hands of Hertha Berlin, but last season's strugglers seem to have turned the corner in the past couple of weeks.

Indeed, Florian Kohfeldt's side have enjoyed back-to-back victories against Schalke and Arminia since that 4-1 loss to Hertha, with Leonardo Bittencourt netting the winner against Arminia.

Despite their status as a newly-promoted club, Arminia have shown that they are not going to be bullied during their time with the big boys, so Bremen were certainly full value for that hard-fought victory against last season's 2.Bundesliga champions.

Kohfeldt will be tasked with ensuring that Die Werderaner's woeful 2019-20 campaign does not repeat itself this time around, and a third victory from four would put the Bremen faithful's mind at ease as the season gathers pace.

Bremen took the spoils in this fixture last season courtesy of another Bittencourt winner, while Freiburg have only triumphed once in their last eight meetings in all competitions with Die Werderaner.

Freiburg Bundesliga form: WDL
Freiburg form (all competitions): WWDL

Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: LWW
Werder Bremen form (all competitions): WLWW


Team News

Milot Rashica in action for Werder Bremen on June 27, 2020© Reuters

Freiburg are still without goalkeeper Mark Flekken owing to an elbow problem, so Mainz loanee Florian Muller will continue in between the sticks.

Janik Haberer is the only other confirmed absentee for the hosts, although Streich is sweating over the match readiness of Vincenzo Grifo, who was called up to the Italy squad for October's fixtures.

Another international in Freiburg's ranks is Hungarian forward Roland Sallai, but the 23-year-old is expected to feature after cutting his time with the national team short.

With regards to the visitors, Milot Rashica missed out Kosovo's fixtures through injury but has now returned to training, although the attacker is unlikely to be risked from the first whistle.

Kohfeldt has confirmed that he will have his entire contingent available to him in some capacity, although Omer Toprak and Kevin Mohwald are not expected to be fit enough to make the starting lineup.

Following Davy Klaassen's exit to Ajax, Kohfeldt will be forced into a reshuffle, which could see a formation change allowing Manchester United loanee Tahith Chong to come in on the left flank.

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Schmid, Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Sallai, Santamaria, Hofler, Grifo; Petersen, Holer

Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gebre Selassie, Veljkovic, Friedl, Augustinsson; Eggestein, Mbom, Bittencourt; Sargent, Fullkrug, Chong


SM words green background

We say: Freiburg 1-1 Werder Bremen

Bremen have started the season positively and boast a strong recent record against Freiburg, so the visitors should feel confident of coming out on top here. However, Freiburg are not to be underestimated on home soil and will be determined to put things right following their humbling at Dortmund, so we expect both sides to walk away with a point apiece.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 38.69%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 35.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-0 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.


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Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern28178378304859
2Borussia DortmundDortmund28183762392357
3Union BerlinUnion Berlin28157643311252
4RB Leipzig28156753351851
5Freiburg2814864137450
6Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen281351051411044
7Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt2811984941842
8Mainz 05Mainz2811984639742
9Wolfsburg281010846361040
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach2899104345-236
11FC Koln28711103746-932
12Werder Bremen2895144354-1132
13Hoffenheim2885153847-929
14Augsburg2885153753-1629
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum2883173161-3027
16Stuttgart2859143550-1524
17Schalke 04Schalke2859142652-2624
18Hertha Berlin2857163355-2222

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