When it comes to football betting - the biggest sports betting sector in the UK - a typical bookie will let you place a wager on just about anything.
While most people stick to the major markets - such as the result of a given match - others can't resist the lure of big, shiny odds on more unusual outcomes. These less common bets are called "specials".
Bookies love to shout about their specials bets for a reason. It's because the odds are high enough to tempt people in... but they're highly unlikely to actually happen, however much research you've done before placing them.
Specials can come in either season-long or individual-game formats. In this article, we're going to guide you through the most common special bets... and explain why they're generally not a good idea.
Transfers
The transfer windows are one of the most exciting times in football. Speculation about who your club (and just about every other club) will buy is flying everywhere. Everyone has an opinion on who's going where.
The problem with actually betting on transfers is that any information you hear is incredibly unreliable. Agents love to spread rumours about their clients changing teams, either to get the player a new contract, or to alert other clubs to his availability. These rumours are then picked up by websites, blogs and social media "experts", and quickly become fact.
Except they're not... they're still rumours. And the chances are they're not going to happen.
We saw a perfect example of this in the summer of 2018. From the way the media were talking, it seemed a certainty that Real Madrid ace Luka Modric would move to Inter Milan. William Hill's odds of Modric staying at Real Madrid, while those rumours were at their strongest? A massive 1/10. And guess what - he stayed in Madrid.
You can check out some other examples of that happening here.
In short, we would not recommend betting on transfers. It's simply impossible to know which information is real and which is manufactured.
Top Goalscorer
Top goalscorer is one of the most popular season-long bets. That's particularly true in the Premier League, where there are several outstanding candidates. The problem is, it's incredibly hard to know which of these options to take.
Heading into the 2017-18 Premier League season, Harry Kane was the clear favourite to win the Golden Boot, at 3/1 odds. Liverpool's new signing Mohamed Salah was barely on the radar, getting odds of 66/1 some places. Salah, of course, proceeded to break the single season goals record in the EPL, and comfortably win the top goalscorer award.
If you have to bet on this one, a consistent scorer like Kane is probably the safest bet. He won't net you great odds, however, and - given how many competitors he has, it's still not a smart bet.
Relegation
The relegated teams bet seems like a safe one. Every year there are a few sides who will surely struggle to stay up, according to popular opinion.
The problem is that relegation is far more unpredictable than you might think. We only need to look into the recent past for some clear examples.
In 2017-18, the four teams most likely to go down - according to the bookies - were Huddersfield, Brighton, Burnley and Watford. None of those teams were relegated! In fact, the teams who did go down - Swansea, West Brom and Stoke - were ranked fifth, eighth and 10th-most likely respectively.
Anything can happen in the Premier League - that's what makes it so great. Every season we see plucky, smaller teams outperforming expectations, and bigger teams underwhelming. Actually picking the teams who will do those things, however, is nigh-on impossible.
First Goalscorer
So far, we've looked exclusively at season-long specials, but there are single-game variations too. These range from needing one outcome - such as a certain number of corners - to needing several; Player X to score, Player Y to be carded, over three goals and over 10 corners, for example.
One of the most popular single-game specials is first goalscorer. Anytime goalscorer is safer, but this bet gets you significantly higher odds.
The problem is the sheer randomness of the bet. Let's look at Sergio Aguero. He might be one of the most reliable goalscorers around, for example, but - with so much attacking talent at Manchester City - the chances of him specifically scoring the first goal are slim.
Specials Bets Aren't Smart Bets
Specials bets can be fun. Every now and again one will come in for you, and you'll feel like the king of the wagering world. You'll probably get a nice return too, considering specials bets tend to give high odds.
Those odds are high for a reason, however - it's because these bets are very unlikely to come in for you. There's simply too much randomness involved, for both season-long and individual bets. They should certainly not be a central part of any long-term, successful betting strategy.
A study based on the 2014 World Cup showed that "Bet types vary in complexity, with complex types having the highest expected losses." – These bet types have high profile and attraction due to diversity and sometimes aggressive promotions but as Joe Halliday, betting expert and regular columnist at football-betting-sites.co.uk adds: "I'd highly recommend sticking to regular odds as a much smarter play. The odds for specials bets are high, yes, but that doesn't mean they actually offer good value."
