Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 44.78%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 29.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Heracles win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
