Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.36%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 9.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.82%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (2.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
