Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.38%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Independiente in this match.
