Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 35.83%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.43%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Independiente win was 1-0 (12.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
