Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou Evergrande win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 34.73% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou Evergrande win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guangzhou Evergrande would win this match.
