Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 64.15%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 14.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.87%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
