Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 45.84%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 27.17% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
