Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 42.37%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
