It's only a couple of years ago that football journalists and pundits were tripping over themselves to give their hypotheses on why Premier League clubs couldn't cut it in Europe. Yet, here we are today looking forward to all-English finals in the Europa League and Champions League. Quite the turnaround.
Anyway, as boxing fans might look at the tale of the tape, we are going to look at the teams from the perspective of the bookmakers. Moreover, there is a chance to make an argument that the bookies (we use the latest odds from 888sport) have got their sums a little wrong.
Starting with the Europa League final, a match where neither side will feel quite at home. Chelsea are given the tag as favourites, with odds of 4/6 to lift the trophy. But does that really hold up under scrutiny? For years we held up Arsenal – 5/4 to win the trophy – as being soft when coming up against 'Big 6' clubs, but they have turned that around. Chelsea have won just twice in 10 games against Arsenal, with the Gunners bagging five wins in that period.
Chelsea have been dreadful away from the Bridge
A lot of punters will focus on Arsenal's infamously bad away form this season and weigh up if that will apply to their performance out in Azerbaijan. But, then again, Chelsea have stuttered away from home too this season, especially against better teams. The Blues' record against the Premier League top 10 this season away from home? Played nine: zero wins, three draws and six losses. It brings one to assert that the 11/5 offered for Arsenal to win in 90 minutes looks a steal from a football betting perspective.
As for the 'big one' in Madrid on June 1, it's difficult to look beyond Liverpool as favourites. After all, the Reds did finish the Premier League season 26 points ahead of their opponents, Tottenham. That's apparent in Liverpool's 11/20 odds for winning the trophy for a sixth time, whereas Tottenham are 6/4 to lift the famous trophy for the first time in the club's history. Is that a fair assessment? You'd have to say it is, as Tottenham's record against Liverpool since Jurgen Klopp took over is pretty shocking, with just one win since the German took the reins in October 2015.
Final could be slow to get going
Still, punters would be foolish to underestimate Tottenham's chances in a one-off game. Liverpool just sneak into odds-on territory at 49/50 to win in 90 minutes, with Spurs' price a pretty healthy 29/10. One would argue that Liverpool should be a little higher and Spurs a bit lower, because you'd imagine both sides will be nervous, which might keep the game tight early on. Indeed, we like to imagine Champions League finals as examples of football as a 'high art' but often they are cagey in large parts, only loosening up when a goal or two acts as a catalyst for the match.
While the bookies have favoured Chelsea and Liverpool for the trophies, it would come as a surprise to absolutely nobody if another combination of teams ended up winning. Indeed, there is even the chance that Daniel Levy will have to get on the blower to Vinai Venkatesham to ensure that the parade routes of North London don't overlap with each other next month. For neutrals, let's hope the uncertainty leads to an exciting couple of matchups.
