Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
