Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 29.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.