Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 47.21%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
